2019 was an easy year as a P2P investor. Most of the year you could just lean back, relax, and count the money. The P2P industry seemed to be running smoothly, of course there were still some hiccups but nothing too alarming. Fuelled by new insights and more sceptical investors, this radically changed in 2020. And was even amplified by the Corona crisis leading to outright investor and industry panic.
In the wake of all this, it became clear that my previous income reporting was insufficient and did not properly incorporate losses. I therefore decided to create a new indicator, an annual yield taking all losses and profits into account. For platforms/LOs that are closing down or that are severely stressed (based on community input), I anticipate that all is lost.
All money lost is obviously a worst case scenario since the actual outcome is not yet confirmed. However, I expect that the list of troubled platforms and LOs will grow during the year, at least as a consequence of Corona. This in turn could favour the initial estimate.
Looking at the yield (YTD) it seems like break-even is within reach at year end. However, much can still happen and data is only based on Q1, which creates substantial uncertainties. Also, the income side is expected to decline due to withdrawal of funds. This will make it even harder to reach break-even this year.